The turnout in
the European elections in Brighton and Hove was slightly higher than in the
local elections three weeks ago, but not by so much as to make it pointless to
look at the results in order to compare them. To a considerable extent, these
are results from the same people voting in the same City, three weeks apart.
Party
|
Share of the
vote 2 May
|
Share of the
vote 23 May
|
Greens
|
34.1%
|
35.7%
|
Labour
|
32.5%
|
13.0%
|
Tories
|
21%
|
5.2%
|
Liberal
Democrats
|
5.8%
|
22.2%
|
Brexit Party
|
N/A
|
17.4%
|
Change UK
|
N/A
|
4.9%
|
Although our
Green friends and neighbours will be justly proud of an impressive performance
once again (and one which was also reflected elsewhere in the country and in
Europe) what is really noticeable is that almost two thirds of those who voted
Labour on 2 May, and more than three quarters of those who voted Conservative,
did not stick with the Party they had chosen for the local Council when voting
for the European Parliament.
These votes went
to Parties not really in contention in elections to Brighton and Hove City
Council but which had simple messages either for or against Brexit, either the
Liberal Democrats (and – to a much lesser extent – their soon-to-be partners in
Change UK) or the Brexit Party.
The
contemporary volatility of political opinion may reduce the extent to which one
can speak of “Labour voters” as a defined category, but looking at votes cast
earlier this month and then last week, we can see that the large majority of
those Labour voters did not vote Labour in the European elections, because
these European elections were being treated as a surrogate (if constitutionally
ineffective) referendum on Brexit.
The fact that –
within three weeks – the results of local and European elections can be so
dramatically different demonstrates that we cannot predict General Election voting
from either set of figures. However, we cannot ignore the evidence that our
approach to Brexit (focusing on the interests of the 99% rather than either the
52% or the 48%) has largely failed to appeal even to our own supporters.
We need to
contemplate the sort of change of approach which John McDonnell has suggested
today, which does not amount to any attack upon our Leader (a challenge to whom
would be both futile and damaging).
The Tories will respond to the surge of
support for Farage by heading towards the disaster of a “no deal” Brexit. Any Brexit will
be contrary to the interests of working-class people in the United Kingdom, but
a “no deal” Brexit would be catastrophic. Circumstances dictate that Labour
must shift clearly in favour of a confirmatory public vote, in which our only
conceivable campaigning option would be “remain and reform.”
We also need to
engage with our mass membership in order to start now our campaign for the all
but inevitable General Election, which will be called when the next Tory Prime
Minister cannot get their preferred Brexit option through Parliament.
And to start
that we need our National Executive to allow constituencies throughout the
country to get on with selecting candidates around whom we can build a campaign
for socialist policies.
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